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Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 37.2%

Draw: 27.0%

Sunderland win: 35.9%

Predicted: Crystal Palace

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.17

More corners: Sunderland (43.8% home / 56.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 68.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.